India's services sector output growth touched a three-month high in November as business inflows rose markedly amid accommodative demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 55.1 in October to 56.4 in November, indicating a sharp increase in output that was the quickest in three months even amid higher operating expenses. Survey participants linked the latest expansion to demand strength, successful marketing and a sustained upturn in sales.
"We see the Indian economy rebounding from our projected 6.1 per cent growth this fiscal year to something like 7 per cent in the next fiscal year (2020). We see the factors that will support growth, including monetary policy stimulus, working their way through the pipeline," Jonathan Ostry, Deputy Director, Asia Pacific Department at the IMF, told reporters.
Bold reforms and prudent monetary and fiscal policies by the incoming Narendra Modi government will help the economy to grow at 6.5-7 percent, says a report.
Search is on for reliable indicators of underlying activity.
Corporate India is indicating cautious hiring in the March quarter of 2023 as concerns rise over possible recession and steady inflation, a survey said on Thursday. According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, based on interviews with nearly 3,030 public and private employers, hiring intentions will decrease in the quarter both on year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis. During the quarter, 48 per cent employers expect to increase their staffing levels, 16 per cent anticipate a decrease in hiring intent and 34 per cent do not anticipate any change in hiring, resulting in a net employment outlook of 32 per cent.
The Life Insurance Corporation of India has the wherewithal to acquire a composite license, a top source aware of the development told Business Standard, adding that the insurance behemoth may look into entering the health and general insurance segments. "LIC has the scale, capacity, IT infrastructure, and the distribution reach to take advantage of the composite license. "LIC is looking at organic as well as inorganic growth opportunities.
Image used for representational purpose only. Photograph: Jayanta Dey/Reuters The Congress also said demonetisation has come a full circle and added that the Rs 2,000 note was a "band-aid to cover up the foolish decision of demonetising" Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes.
'The biggest risk to the Indian markets from a 12-18-month view is that the current government does not get re-elected, or loses in a way that is not represented at all in the next central government.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced a relief package of Rs 20 lakh crore or about 10 per cent or GDP last week. However, many of the measures unveiled have been in the form of moves like loan guarantees which do not entail an immediate fiscal cost.
Ratings agency Moody's on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign rating and upgraded the country's outlook to 'stable' from 'negative', citing receding downside risks to the economy and financial system.
The Congress on Sunday gave a call to party leaders in poll-bound states to work with unity to ensure victory that will 'set the tone' for 2024 Lok Sabha polls even as it showed willingness to forge an alliance of 'like-minded' parties.
Monetary Policy Committee keeps key interest rate (repo) unchanged at 4% for 7th consecutive time; Consequently, reverse repo rate too remains unchanged at 3.35%; Bank rate also remains same at 4.25%;
After raising interest rate by a cumulative 250 basis points in 11 months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday unexpectedly kept benchmark rate unchanged as global banking woes added uncertainty to the economic outlook. Five out of six members of MPC voted to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation aligns with target while focusing on growth, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank decided to take a pause after a rate hike seen in previous six consecutive policies.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at over 7 per cent in the current fiscal year, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Wednesday, while observing that the growth rate should sustain next year too provided the forthcoming Budget does not have any negative surprises. Panagariya further said recessionary fears have been around for a while but so far neither the US nor the EU has gone into recession. "From the viewpoint of India, in terms of headwinds originating abroad, the worst is probably behind us," he told PTI.
Despite strong AUM growth, MFs lag behind other popular investment avenues. MFs received only 6 per cent of total household savings in 2021-2022.
Observing that India's worsening COVID-19 situation and the strict measures to contain it have hit the economy hard, the rating agency said productive capacity has been severely disrupted since the start of the pandemic.
IMF cut its 2016 global growth forecast for the fourth time in the past year to 3.2 per cent, citing China's slowdown.
Very gradual fiscal consolidation glide path with looser-than-expected fiscal policy; good quality spending mix and reasonable assumption on fiscal math; and focus on privatisation, asset monetisation and long-term funding for infrastructure investments, according to Morgan Stanley, are the three key themes from the Budget 2021.
They expressed concern on taxation issues, the high fiscal and current account deficits, and sought removal of capital gains tax.
Shocks from Brexit could also hurt one of China's biggest export markets.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the GDP forecast for the current financial year at 9.5 per cent and flagged global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices and potential global financial market volatility as downside risks to economic growth. In his address after the three-day meeting of the rate-setting panel, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said recovery in aggregate demand gathered pace in August-September, and it is reflected in high-frequency indicators, like railway freight traffic; port cargo; cement production; electricity demand; e-way bills; GST and toll collections. "The ebbing of infections, together with improving consumer confidence, has been supporting private consumption," he said, and added the pent-up demand and the festival season should give further fillip to urban demand in the second half of the financial year.
India is much better placed today to deal with future waves of the pandemic relative to the first wave, RBI deputy governor Michael Patra said.
Senior tax officials were told to focus on cash collection from the arrears so that the target for FY23 was achieved and the overall revenue position improved.
India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the second wave of COVID infections poses downside risks to India's GDP and heightens the possibility of business disruptions. The second wave brings in uncertainty and a drawn-out COVID outbreak will impede India's recovery, it said.
Crowds carrying lighted candles in memory of those killed in the fire at an apartment block reported under COVID-19 lockdown in Urumqi in Xinjiang shouted slogans against the arbitrary lockdowns by the government to curb the spread of the virus and in solidarity with the weekend protests in Shanghai.
Indian economy is likely to rebound with an 8.9 per cent growth in the fiscal year beginning April 2021 after economic activity showed significant improvement in the last quarter, IHS Markit said on Friday. The National Statistical Organisation (NSO) on Thursday predicted that the economy will contract 7.7 per cent in the current financial year ending in March, the worst performance in four decades.
83% of the CEOS plan to hire more in the new year.
The brokerage said that the reform measures announced by the government will help growth only over the medium term and are not expected to have any benefit in the near-term.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday exuded confidence that inflation would further decline and the government is on track to meet its budgetary target for deficit and said that there is no fear of stagflation in India. Replying to the debate on first batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants 2022-23 in Lok Sabha, the finance minister said inflation has come down and it is now in the tolerable band of the RBI. Inflation has been declining since April 2022 and it is declining further, she said.
Farm loan waiver has been presumed to be inflationary. But the short-term consequences are likely to be quite deflationary.
However, the growth during the next financial year would be higher at 8.1 per cent in case of a second wave of the coronavirus and bit slower at 7.9 per cent if the virus recedes and remains under control.
For 2021-22, it projected the economy to clock a growth of 10.6 per cent.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth forecast to 10 per cent for the current fiscal, from 12.8 per cent estimated earlier, due to slowing recovery post second wave of COVID-19, and said rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence. In a report, the global rating agency said the challenges for banking sector posed by the coronavirus pandemic have increased due to a virulent second wave in the first quarter of the financial year ending March 2022 (FY22). "Fitch Ratings revised down India's real GDP for FY22 by 280bp to 10 per cent, underlining our belief that renewed restrictions have slowed recovery efforts and left banks with a moderately worse outlook for business and revenue generation in FY22," it said. Fitch believes that rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence; however, without it, economic recovery would remain vulnerable to further waves and lockdowns.
India might be heading towards a "serious livelihood crisis" as the situation seems to be worse this time for the working class amid the COVID crisis and local restrictions by states already add up to something close to a nationwide lockdown, according to noted economist Jean Dreze. In an interview to PTI, he also said the government's target to make India a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25 was never a "feasible target" and was just to pander to the "super-power ambitions" of the Indian elite. About the impact of the second wave of COVID on the Indian economy, the eminent economist said the situation today is not very different from what it was around this time last year as far as working people are concerned.
I suggest we build a Vigyan Mandir (Temple of Science) with the ambience of a place of worship, so that it becomes a destination for pilgrims. We should embed on its walls bronze plaques describing each scientist mentioned here along with about a dozen of our ancient mathematicians, recommends Professor Kalyan Singhal, historian of science and technology.
The Indian economy will suffer lasting damage from the coronavirus crisis and after an initial strong rebound in FY22 (fiscal year ending March 2022) growth will slow to around 6.5 per cent a year over FY23-FY26, Fitch Ratings said on Thursday. "A combination of supply-side scarring and demand-side constraints - such as the weak state of the financial sector - will keep the level of GDP well below its pre-pandemic path," it said in commentary on the Indian economy. Fitch said India's coronavirus-induced recession has been among the most severe in the world, amid a stringent lockdown and limited direct fiscal support.
The broad trends of GST collections will make you wonder if indeed the biggest indirect tax reform in the country has led to a real improvement in revenues, notes A K Bhattacharya.
Fitch Ratings director Thomas Rookmaaker said India's debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to rise to 76 per cent from 70 per cent currently due to wider fiscal deficit and low economic growth.
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The agency also warned the government of overshooting the fiscal deficit target at 4.8 per cent due to poor revenue growth and pegged it at 5.2 per cent this fiscal.
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