India's gross tax collections soared to a record high of Rs 27.07 lakh crore in the fiscal year ended March 31, led by impressive growth in corporate tax and customs, taking the tax-to-GDP ratio to an over two-decade high of 11.7 per cent, Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj said on Friday.
Is the worst over for Indian banks? The past two years saw them ride on treasury trades as deposits soared and credit growth dipped sharply. Gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) moved south, and the provision coverage ratio (PCR), capital buffers, and profitability indicators are back at pre-pandemic levels. So, what's the plot ahead?
After contracting for two quarters in a row, the Indian economy entered the positive territory with a growth of 0.4 per cent in the October-December quarter, mainly due to good performance by farm, services and construction sectors, official data showed on Friday. Trade and hotel industry registered a contraction of 7.7 per cent during the third quarter this fiscal, as the sectors continued to suffer on account of coronavirus pandemic. According to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the farm sector recorded a growth of 3.9 per cent, and the manufacturing sector output grew by 1.6 per cent in the quarter under review.
The repo rate, at which the central bank lends to the system, will come down to 5.75 per cent after the cut.
There are two ways: Deliver a rapidly growing economic pie or reform GST and close corporate tax loopholes, suggests T N Ninan.
Bold reforms and prudent monetary and fiscal policies by the incoming Narendra Modi government will help the economy to grow at 6.5-7 percent, says a report.
Search is on for reliable indicators of underlying activity.
With a narrow industrial base and dysfunctional politics, and a counter-productive national security agenda, Pakistan could well remain an 'international migraine', observes T N Ninan.
The Indian economy remains on track to regain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy after official estimates on Friday put the expansion at a tempered 9.2 per cent this fiscal amid concerns over the impact of a resurgent virus on the fragile recovery. The growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 9.2 per cent in April 2021 to March 2022 fiscal (FY 2021-22) given by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in its first advance estimate compares with 9.5 per cent expansion forecast by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last month. The economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in the previous financial year.
The economy is likely to register a 9.5 per cent growth this fiscal over 7.3 per cent contraction last year, as the ongoing recovery is faster and more credible than earlier foreseen, according to a foreign brokerage report. It will gather more momentum in the second half of the current fiscal, but will slow down to 7.7 per cent next financial year, it added. The government has budgeted for a 10.5 per cent growth this fiscal, but the Reserve Bank has scaled it down to 9.5 per cent.
'One cannot take it that the economy has recovered, and the GST payment has increased because of that, or that production is back to January 2020 level.'
The government Rs 20 lakh crore package includes Rs 1.7 lakh crore of fiscal stimulus announced in the first phase, Rs 5.6 lakh crore stimulus provided through various monetary policy measures and Rs 5.94 lakh crore through the second phase, implying Rs 6.70 lakh crore package is still to be announced.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation. This is the sixth time interest rate has been hiked by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since May last year, taking the total quantum of hike to 250 basis points. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) by a majority decided to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and keep a 'strong vigil' on inflation outlook.
"We see the Indian economy rebounding from our projected 6.1 per cent growth this fiscal year to something like 7 per cent in the next fiscal year (2020). We see the factors that will support growth, including monetary policy stimulus, working their way through the pipeline," Jonathan Ostry, Deputy Director, Asia Pacific Department at the IMF, told reporters.
The Asian Development Bank has downgraded India's economic growth forecast for the current financial year to 10 per cent on Tuesday, from 11 per cent projected in April, on account of the adverse impact of the coronavirus pandemic. India's GDP growth recovered to 1.6 per cent in the last quarter of fiscal year ended March 2021, narrowing contraction in the whole fiscal year from 8 per cent estimated in April to a revised 7.3 per cent, the multilateral funding agency said in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) Supplement. "Then a second wave of the pandemic induced many state governments to impose strict containment measures.
A bit of economic reforms stalled and decisions delayed -- what Narayana Murthy spoke of -- don't hurt if a country's compassionate and inclusive social fabric has survived intact; if the country is happy, observes Shyam G Menon.
After navigating the turbulent pandemic waves, the recovering Indian economy is now sailing through unchartered waters of rising coronavirus cases, spiralling commodity prices and spiking inflation though the lighthouse of sustainable growth remains visible. As 2022 begins, a raft of developments, ranging from Budgetary announcements to continuation of stimulus measures to monetary policy, will set the tone for the domestic economy, which is projected to grow more than 9 per cent in the current fiscal ending March 2022. The country's continuing massive vaccination drive and 'precaution' doses starting for select categories of people this month will provide a firewall against any steep spike in coronavirus cases amid the emergence of the Omicron variant.
Rationalisation of income tax slabs, infrastructure status for digital services and incentives to hydrogen storage as well as fuel cell development were some of the suggestions made by various stakeholders at the pre-Budget consultation meeting convened by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. The customary pre-Budget consultation meetings were held with the finance minister virtually between December 15 and December 22, as per the finance ministry statement. More than 120 invitees representing seven stakeholder groups participated in eight meetings, scheduled during this period, it said.
IMF cut its 2016 global growth forecast for the fourth time in the past year to 3.2 per cent, citing China's slowdown.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced a relief package of Rs 20 lakh crore or about 10 per cent or GDP last week. However, many of the measures unveiled have been in the form of moves like loan guarantees which do not entail an immediate fiscal cost.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in October after being net sellers in the previous month. In October, FPIs bought shares worth nearly Rs 8,430 crore ($1 billion) against net selling of Rs 13,405 crore ($1.6 billion) in September. Positive flows during three of the previous four months have pushed the domestic markets towards fresh all-time highs. At present, the Sensex and Nifty are less than 2 per cent shy of breaching record highs logged in October 2021. A rally in equity markets in the US and Europe is in hopes that the Federal Reserve may go soft on rate hikes after its November meeting.
Stock market investors are expecting a balanced Budget with a focus on job creation, increased spending on infrastructure, reigning in the deficit, and bringing the economy back on track, experts said on Wednesday. Stock markets have been subdued in the run-up to the Union Budget with BSE's benchmark Sensex is almost flat so far this month. Even the corporate earning season failed to excite the markets, while some indices like IT and bankex have seen some positive movements.
They expressed concern on taxation issues, the high fiscal and current account deficits, and sought removal of capital gains tax.
Macroeconomic management is usually a lot more comfortable with lower fiscal deficits. The sooner we get there, the better for the economy, says former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India Shankar Acharya.
Shocks from Brexit could also hurt one of China's biggest export markets.
'If you look at the order books of capital equipment companies or money deployed on the ground, there is forward movement in terms of actual investment by the private sector.'
Ratings agency Moody's on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign rating and upgraded the country's outlook to 'stable' from 'negative', citing receding downside risks to the economy and financial system.
Observing that India's worsening COVID-19 situation and the strict measures to contain it have hit the economy hard, the rating agency said productive capacity has been severely disrupted since the start of the pandemic.
'For free supply of drugs and medicines itself, almost Rs 20,000 crores would be required.'
Monetary Policy Committee keeps key interest rate (repo) unchanged at 4% for 7th consecutive time; Consequently, reverse repo rate too remains unchanged at 3.35%; Bank rate also remains same at 4.25%;
'Investors should ideally consider equity allocations from a medium-to-long term perspective.'
Very gradual fiscal consolidation glide path with looser-than-expected fiscal policy; good quality spending mix and reasonable assumption on fiscal math; and focus on privatisation, asset monetisation and long-term funding for infrastructure investments, according to Morgan Stanley, are the three key themes from the Budget 2021.
India's services sector output growth touched a three-month high in November as business inflows rose markedly amid accommodative demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 55.1 in October to 56.4 in November, indicating a sharp increase in output that was the quickest in three months even amid higher operating expenses. Survey participants linked the latest expansion to demand strength, successful marketing and a sustained upturn in sales.
Corporate India is indicating cautious hiring in the March quarter of 2023 as concerns rise over possible recession and steady inflation, a survey said on Thursday. According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, based on interviews with nearly 3,030 public and private employers, hiring intentions will decrease in the quarter both on year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis. During the quarter, 48 per cent employers expect to increase their staffing levels, 16 per cent anticipate a decrease in hiring intent and 34 per cent do not anticipate any change in hiring, resulting in a net employment outlook of 32 per cent.
The Life Insurance Corporation of India has the wherewithal to acquire a composite license, a top source aware of the development told Business Standard, adding that the insurance behemoth may look into entering the health and general insurance segments. "LIC has the scale, capacity, IT infrastructure, and the distribution reach to take advantage of the composite license. "LIC is looking at organic as well as inorganic growth opportunities.
Farm loan waiver has been presumed to be inflationary. But the short-term consequences are likely to be quite deflationary.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the GDP forecast for the current financial year at 9.5 per cent and flagged global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices and potential global financial market volatility as downside risks to economic growth. In his address after the three-day meeting of the rate-setting panel, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said recovery in aggregate demand gathered pace in August-September, and it is reflected in high-frequency indicators, like railway freight traffic; port cargo; cement production; electricity demand; e-way bills; GST and toll collections. "The ebbing of infections, together with improving consumer confidence, has been supporting private consumption," he said, and added the pent-up demand and the festival season should give further fillip to urban demand in the second half of the financial year.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the second wave of COVID infections poses downside risks to India's GDP and heightens the possibility of business disruptions. The second wave brings in uncertainty and a drawn-out COVID outbreak will impede India's recovery, it said.
The brokerage said that the reform measures announced by the government will help growth only over the medium term and are not expected to have any benefit in the near-term.
'I'm pitching India for the strengths we offer, including the English language, engineers, doctors, nurses, professionals, innovative talent of startups.'
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